Abstract: Controlling bottom water coning and determining the reasonable production capacity of oil well are the key problems in bottom water reservoir development. Because the influence of start-up pressure gradient, pressure sensitive effect and other factors are not considered, the results calculated by previous prediction methods are quite different from the actual results of oil wells, which is not conducive to the efficient development of oil wells. Based on the law of fluid flow in low permeability porous media, a method for predicting the water coning and productivity of oil well in low permeability bottom water reservoir is established. Field test shows that the prediction results of this method are closer to the actual results of oil wells. It can be used to predict the initial production capacity of oil wells in low permeability bottom water reservoirs, determine the reasonable production differential pressure and predict the breakthrough time of bottom water and other key parameters of high-efficiency development. It has important guiding significance for the design of development plan of low permeability reservoirs with bottom water.