Abstract: Based on reservoir parameters of Bohai heavy oil reservoir with bottom water,the mechanism model has been established.By using numerical simulation methods,the impacts of water multiples,the reservoir thickness,oil viscosity,permeability,Kv/Kh,heterogeneity on steam stimulation have been analyzed.With the gray correlation method,a multivariate sensitivity analysis has been carried out.Besides that,through multiple regressions,the recovery calculation formula of heavy oil reservoir with bottom water has been established.Taking the comprehensive consideration of various factors affecting the steam stimulation into account,the fitting formula has been applied to predict the actual recovery of Bohai.The results indicate the method is simple,easy to implement and has a high accuracy.